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Split Board at The NBP

POLAND
  • This morning, MPC member Cezary Kochalski said in a interview that he sees annual inflation slightly higher than 4% in 2021 and around 4.5% in the coming quarter. Raising rates too soon may weigh on the economic recovery, as uncertainty remains elevated. Curbing QE will be first step in "normalizing" monetary policy once that time comes.
  • Polish MPC member Lon mentioned commented earlier on inflation, confirming that it will start to show sings of easing in early H2.
  • With Core CPI rising to 4% in May and Final CPI print coming in at 4.7%, both key measures of inflation are now standing significantly higher than the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band.
  • Last week, 'hawkish' MPC member Gatnar repeated on TV Biznes24 that a 'symbolic' rate rise is needed as it is still not clear if the polish spike is temporary. Gatnar sees CPI inflation at 5% in June and confirmed that polish fiscal expansion will 'simulate inflation'. MPC member Hardy also commented on TOK FM that polish interest rates should be 'gently normalized' right now as CPI inflation may remain elevated for longer than expected if NBP does not act.
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