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Split Remains In LDP Leadership Contest, Members Favour Kono, MPs Kishida

JAPAN

A significant split has emerged between the two voting blocs in the contest for the leadership of Japan's governing Liberal Democratic Party. The first-round vote on Wednesday sees LDP parliamentarians' votes carry 50% weighting, with the other 50% weighting going to regular party members. Polling shows Vaccines Minister Taro Kono more popular with party members, while former foreign minister Fumio Kishida favoured by LDP Diet members.

  • Yomiuri poll: LDP (Conservative) leadership election, voting intention among LDP MPs (50% of first round electoral college): Kishida: 127 (+33), Kono: 103 (+20), Takaichi: 82 (+11), Noda: 21 (+5), Undecided: 49 (-69). +/- vs. 19 September 2021. Fieldwork: 26 September 2021
  • Yomiuri poll: Preferred LDP (Conservative) leader, among party members and supporters with voting rights (50% of first round electoral college): Kono: 41%, Kishida: 22%, Takaichi: 20%, Noda: 6%. Fieldwork: 18-19 September 2021. Sample size: 1,514
  • In order to win in the first round, a candidate must win over 50% total support (so this could be, for example, 40% of MPs and 60% of party members). At present it appears unlikely that this threshold will be reached. In this event, a second-round election takes place between the two top-placed candidates. In a run-off the weighting of votes shifts in favour of LDP parliamentartians.
  • Given his stronger support with MPs, Kishida could end up in second place in the first round but then winning election to the LDP leadership in a run-off having won among parliamentarians.
Homepagemarkets-real-timePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskBank of Japan (BOJ) Market NewsPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Homepagemarkets-real-timePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskBank of Japan (BOJ) Market NewsPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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