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Spot Gold Benefits From Pullback in Fed Hike Pricing

GOLD
  • Spot gold continues to firm, holding just below the session's best levels ahead of the COMEX open. Precious metals are benefiting not only from the pullback in the greenback so far Friday but also the easing in Fed rate hike pricing into the tail-end of the week. The Fed's implied peak rate for September has slipped around 8bps so far Friday, boosting both gold and silver.
  • Inflation expectations across Europe are also edging higher, with stronger revisions for February PMI data as well as the upward revision for the Eurozone CPI estimate feeding directly into the 5y5y forward inflation swap, which today prints up at 2.575% - a new series high and topping the Ukraine invasion-induced high from early 2022.
  • The gold/silver ratio remains in the technical uptrend posted since the beginning of the year, and is narrowing in on the best levels since mid-October (90.7).
  • ISM Services the key release later Friday, after the manufacturing equivalent moved markets earlier this week. Particular focus should be given to the prices paid component, which reaccelerated for the manufacturing sector this week, despite expectations for a sub-50 reading.
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