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Spot Gold, Crude Eases Back

COMMODITIES
  • Spot gold is down 2.7% at $2,327/oz early on Monday, bringing the yellow metal to its lowest level in a week, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased.
  • The move was not isolated to gold, with silver also now off by 5.2% on the day at $27.2/oz, leaving it 8.7% off the April high.
  • As a result, the gold/silver ratio is back above the 200-dma, after dipping below earlier in the month.
  • The trend condition in gold is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish, with sights on $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection, on the upside. Initial firm support is at $2310.2, the 20-day EMA.
  • Meanwhile, crude has eased back on the day, although it has moderated some of its earlier losses. While the geopolitical risk premium linked to Middle East supply concerns is easing, conflict remains a concern for the market.
  • WTI Jun 24 is down 0.5% at $81.8/bbl.
  • Further sanctions against Iran’s oil sector were included in the foreign aid bill passed by the US House at the weekend.
  • From a technical perspective, a bull theme in WTI futures remains intact, although last week’s move lower highlights the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle.
  • The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at $80.70. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high.
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