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Spot USD/PHP Eyes 57.00

PHP

Spot USD/PHP could be in focus in the first part of onshore trade today, with markets opening in around 10mins. Spot closed yesterday at 56.825, a PHP loss of 0.33%. Highs for the session came in near 56.89. The 1 month NDF broke above 57.00 post yesterday's onshore spot close, getting to highs of 57.04/05.

  • Such levels should keep spot USD/PHP close to the 57.00 level in the first part of trade today. We may see increased intervention risks though. 57.00 is towards the top end of the government's assumed 54.00-57.00 range for the local FX.
  • Some sell-side analysts have also warned of increased intervention risks on moves towards 57.00 in spot USD/PHP.
  • Given broad based USD strength, the authorities may be reluctant to draw a firm line in the sand though. The PHP NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) is also comfortably above earlier YTD lows (current level of 98.86, versus mid April lows are 95.36).
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