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KRW: Spot USD/KRW Edging Higher, First 10days Exports For Feb Remain Weak

KRW

Spot USD/KRW has edged up a little in the first part of Tuesday trade, last near 1453/54. The pair remains comfortably within recent ranges, but is back above the 20-day EMA support point, last near 1449.5. Further south is the 50-day EMA, (near 1438.2). 

  • We had the the first 10days of Feb trade data earlier, so interpretation of the results should still be treated with some degree of caution.
  • Nevertheless the trend move lower in daily average exports (in y/y terms) suggests momentum remains off the heady mid 2024 pace, see the chart below. The first 10days daily average is white, the full month in orange.
  • Otherwise the data calendar is fairly light in terms on bank lending, money supply and trade prices over coming session We also get unemployment figures on Friday. The household lending data and labor market data will be watched from a BOK standpoint (meets towards the end of this month).
  • In the cross asset space, local equities are higher, up around 0.60%, but the Kospi is unable to break above late Jan highs. The won is lagging equity trends. Firm correlations continue with CNY amid trade concerns. Offshore investors have also remained net sellers of local equities so far this month. 

Fig 1: First 10days Exports Versus Full Month Trend - Y/Y 

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Spot USD/KRW has edged up a little in the first part of Tuesday trade, last near 1453/54. The pair remains comfortably within recent ranges, but is back above the 20-day EMA support point, last near 1449.5. Further south is the 50-day EMA, (near 1438.2). 

  • We had the the first 10days of Feb trade data earlier, so interpretation of the results should still be treated with some degree of caution.
  • Nevertheless the trend move lower in daily average exports (in y/y terms) suggests momentum remains off the heady mid 2024 pace, see the chart below. The first 10days daily average is white, the full month in orange.
  • Otherwise the data calendar is fairly light in terms on bank lending, money supply and trade prices over coming session We also get unemployment figures on Friday. The household lending data and labor market data will be watched from a BOK standpoint (meets towards the end of this month).
  • In the cross asset space, local equities are higher, up around 0.60%, but the Kospi is unable to break above late Jan highs. The won is lagging equity trends. Firm correlations continue with CNY amid trade concerns. Offshore investors have also remained net sellers of local equities so far this month. 

Fig 1: First 10days Exports Versus Full Month Trend - Y/Y 

Keep reading...Show less