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Spring Statement at 12:30GMT

GILTS
  • Just a reminder we have the Spring Statement at 12:30GMT. Our full preview is here.
  • Gilts are off their highs of the day, but are still underperforming USTs and Bunds across the curve on the day.
  • The main event for the gilt market will be the remit revision which normally comes out as Chancellor Sunak sits down at the end of his speech.
  • A median of 12 GEMM expectations for the remit comes in at GBP153.5bln with estimates ranging from GBP124.5bln to GBP211.2bln. Of these, nine estimates were in a range of GBP135-176.6bln (one lower, two above GBP200bln). For reference, gilt sales for FY21/22 totalled GBP194.7bln, against an initial target of GBP295.9bln. So expectations are that this year’s remit will be around half what was originally proposed for the soon-to-end fiscal year. Note that this was a significant upside surprise to expectations.
  • A median of 10 GEMMs expect the target stock of T-bills to be GBP20.4bln, with 8/10 looking for an increase to the stock in the GBP15-30bln range.
  • 2y yields down -5.2bp today at 1.351%, 5y yields down -3.8bp at 1.419%, 10y yields down -3.1bp at 1.676% and 30y yields down -1.8bp at 1.903%.
  • 2s10s up 2.0bp today at 32.4bp and 10s30s up 1.3bp at 22.7bp.
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