MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY48 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1289 Fri; -0.35% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1289 FRI VS 7.1305

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 4

MNI BRIEF: China Has Four Months To Negotiate EU EV Agreement

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

Factory Orders Decline as Non-EU Orders Dip

DMP survey increases probability of August cut

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SRF's Daily Tracking Poll Shows Support For ANC Is In Low 40s

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletHomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Market News

The support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) remains below the 50% threshold ahead of the May 29 voting day, according to the Social Research Foundation's (SRF's) daily tracking poll.

  • The SRF's model is based on a daily moving average of the voting intentions expressed by respondents in a nationally representative sample of over 1,800 South African voters. Every day 300 oldest participants are dropped from the sample and 300 new participants are added, and the moving average is refreshed every six days.
  • The SRF note that trends are not flattening out towards the late stages of the poll, due to "an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support." They note that "the ANC fractures, causing a small share of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA."
  • As per the latest update, in a model assuming a turnout of 66%, the ANC was polling at 42.2% yesterday, with the DA at 24.4%, MK at 13.2%, EFF at 9.3%, IFP at 2.8% and others at 8.1%. Click here to see the relevant charts.
  • For more colour see a comprehensive preview of the election compiled by our political risk team. The document includes a scenario analysis as well as a summary of sell-side views.
210 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) remains below the 50% threshold ahead of the May 29 voting day, according to the Social Research Foundation's (SRF's) daily tracking poll.

  • The SRF's model is based on a daily moving average of the voting intentions expressed by respondents in a nationally representative sample of over 1,800 South African voters. Every day 300 oldest participants are dropped from the sample and 300 new participants are added, and the moving average is refreshed every six days.
  • The SRF note that trends are not flattening out towards the late stages of the poll, due to "an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support." They note that "the ANC fractures, causing a small share of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA."
  • As per the latest update, in a model assuming a turnout of 66%, the ANC was polling at 42.2% yesterday, with the DA at 24.4%, MK at 13.2%, EFF at 9.3%, IFP at 2.8% and others at 8.1%. Click here to see the relevant charts.
  • For more colour see a comprehensive preview of the election compiled by our political risk team. The document includes a scenario analysis as well as a summary of sell-side views.