SRF's Daily Tracking Poll Shows Support For ANC Is In Low 40s

The support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) remains below the 50% threshold ahead of the May 29 voting day, according to the Social Research Foundation's (SRF's) daily tracking poll.

• The SRF's model is based on a daily moving average of the voting intentions expressed by respondents in a nationally representative sample of over 1,800 South African voters. Every day 300 oldest participants are dropped from the sample and 300 new participants are added, and the moving average is refreshed every six days.
• The SRF note that trends are not flattening out towards the late stages of the poll, due to "an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support." They note that "the ANC fractures, causing a small share of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA."
• As per the latest update, in a model assuming a turnout of 66%, the ANC was polling at 42.2% yesterday, with the DA at 24.4%, MK at 13.2%, EFF at 9.3%, IFP at 2.8% and others at 8.1%. Click here to see the relevant charts.
• For more colour see a comprehensive preview of the election compiled by our political risk team. The document includes a scenario analysis as well as a summary of sell-side views.