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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Surely the lowest estimate for Friday's September nonfarm payrolls figure (and one that would cause Fed hike expectations to collapse):
- our Policy Team reported yesterday that the St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index is showing a downward trend in the past few weeks, "which suggests a substantial decline in employment," economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
- Negative seasonality factors further drag down the -732k unadjusted figure to -913k - compared to +260k seen by consensus (BBG Whisper number is +254k) and +315k for August.
- There are some significant caveats to those estimates, of course, including the composition bias of their sample data - see story linked above.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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