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St Louis Fed Model: Sept Payrolls  Could Drop Over 900k

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Surely the lowest estimate for Friday's September nonfarm payrolls figure (and one that would cause Fed hike expectations to collapse):

  • our Policy Team reported yesterday that the St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index is showing a downward trend in the past few weeks, "which suggests a substantial decline in employment," economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
  • Negative seasonality factors further drag down the -732k unadjusted figure to -913k - compared to +260k seen by consensus (BBG Whisper number is +254k) and +315k for August.
  • There are some significant caveats to those estimates, of course, including the composition bias of their sample data - see story linked above.

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Surely the lowest estimate for Friday's September nonfarm payrolls figure (and one that would cause Fed hike expectations to collapse):

  • our Policy Team reported yesterday that the St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index is showing a downward trend in the past few weeks, "which suggests a substantial decline in employment," economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
  • Negative seasonality factors further drag down the -732k unadjusted figure to -913k - compared to +260k seen by consensus (BBG Whisper number is +254k) and +315k for August.
  • There are some significant caveats to those estimates, of course, including the composition bias of their sample data - see story linked above.