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Standard Chartered Expect Japan to Intervene Above Y152.00, But Not Immediately

JPY
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  • Standard Chartered write that they expect the MoF/BoJ to intervene in USD/JPY above Y152.00, but not immediately on a break. They write that intervention should succeed as the market looks short JPY, however the MoF/BoJ may spend more than the $60bln spent in 2022 intervention phases.
  • In terms of timing, they write that they will most likely wait until this week's US CPI release, and a hot inflation print would mean fighting market fundamentals.
  • In terms of positioning, they write that if core CPI is inline with 0.3% Exp, markets should trim the crowded JPY short position, and an upside surprise should see profits taken at Y153.00.
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  • Standard Chartered write that they expect the MoF/BoJ to intervene in USD/JPY above Y152.00, but not immediately on a break. They write that intervention should succeed as the market looks short JPY, however the MoF/BoJ may spend more than the $60bln spent in 2022 intervention phases.
  • In terms of timing, they write that they will most likely wait until this week's US CPI release, and a hot inflation print would mean fighting market fundamentals.
  • In terms of positioning, they write that if core CPI is inline with 0.3% Exp, markets should trim the crowded JPY short position, and an upside surprise should see profits taken at Y153.00.