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Steady After Wednesday’s Extension To The Rally

US TSYS

TYH4 is currently trading at 110-11+, +0-01 from NY closing levels.

  • On Wednesday, US tsys extended their recent rally, led by the 2-year, on the back of favourable market data. US tsy yields finished 7-9bps lower.
  • Softer German CPI data, coupled with a "Goldilocks"-esque adjustment to Q3 US GDP, contributed to a 6bp drop in the US tsy 10-year yield to 4.26%. The 2-year rate tested 4.606%, the lowest since June, before finishing at 4.6455%, down 9 bps on the day. It's down almost 50bps from the 5.089% on October 31.
  • Growing Fed rate cut bets deepened thanks to the lack of pushback from most Fed officials. Bostic sees evidence that tighter monetary policy is biting harder into economic activity and Mester (’24 voter retiring in June) reiterated she sees Fed policy on a good footing. The Beige Book then went on to show moderation compared to the mid-October update across output, pricing and labour markets.
  • Later today sees the monthly PCE report, weekly jobless claims, the MNI Chicago PMI and pending home sales, before Chair Powell swings into focus on Friday.

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