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Steady USDCAD Session Belies GoC Swings

CANADA
  • A relatively steady session for USDCAD (+0.2% after -0.8% yesterday with a good part of the rise coming after Russian escalation comments early on) belies larger swings in FI space.
  • After an already strong open, GoCs saw a further sizeable rally as headline CPI missed expectations and sequential core inflation cooled from an extremely strong prior three months.
  • That has since been more than unwound though – 2YY now only -1bp from yesterday’s close, 10YY +2.5bps after a 10bp intraday swing – moving more closely with Treasuries despite US equities unwinding earlier gains.
  • Whilst still a long way from the next BoC decision on Sep 7, hike expectations have been trimmed to 69bps with the next local data point of note retail sales on Fri but US Philly Fed and weekly jobless claims tomorrow also potential triggers.
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  • A relatively steady session for USDCAD (+0.2% after -0.8% yesterday with a good part of the rise coming after Russian escalation comments early on) belies larger swings in FI space.
  • After an already strong open, GoCs saw a further sizeable rally as headline CPI missed expectations and sequential core inflation cooled from an extremely strong prior three months.
  • That has since been more than unwound though – 2YY now only -1bp from yesterday’s close, 10YY +2.5bps after a 10bp intraday swing – moving more closely with Treasuries despite US equities unwinding earlier gains.
  • Whilst still a long way from the next BoC decision on Sep 7, hike expectations have been trimmed to 69bps with the next local data point of note retail sales on Fri but US Philly Fed and weekly jobless claims tomorrow also potential triggers.