GERMANY: Steinmeier Dissolves Parliament, Clears Way For Elections On Feb 23

German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has dissolved the Bundestag, clearing the path for new elections on February 23, 2025. The move was expected following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party government in November.

• Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats, currently holding a robust polling lead, is campaigning on a pro-business, anti-immigration platform, proposing significant tax cuts and welfare reform.
• FT notes that, “Merz’s manifesto has no mention of any change to the debt brake, which remains popular in conservative circles. Instead Merz is seeking €50bn in spending cuts from welfare reform and another €50bn from a shake-up of the immigration system.”
• Reuters reports: “The conservatives have a comfortable lead of more than 10 points over the SPD in most polls. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is slightly ahead of Scholz's party, while the Greens are in fourth place. The mainstream parties have refused to govern with the AfD, but its presence complicates the parliamentary arithmetic, making unwieldy coalitions more likely.”
• The Atlantic Council notes that Merz’s election to Chancellor would be, "potentially good news for Ukraine. Merz is more hawkish toward Russia than current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He is also poised to have a stronger majority in the Bundestag than Scholz..."

Figure 1: German Poll of Polls, One-Year Chart