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Sticky Core adds to Likelihood of 50bp Hike

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK inflation eased for a second month in December, ticking down by 0.2pp to +10.5% y/y in line with consensus estimates, having remained above the 10% level since July (barring the August reading of +9.9% y/y).

  • The largest downward contributions came from transport, driven by lower auto fuel prices. Food inflation was up +16.9% y/y, having risen for a 17th consecutive month to a fresh 45-year high.
  • Core CPI increased by +0.5% m/m, remaining sticky at +6.3% y/y against expectations of a 0.1pp decline. Core services were up +5.8% y/y from +5.4% y/y in November, the highest since Sep '92 and outpacing downwards pressure from apparel and recreation/culture.
  • As such, this data can be interpreted as marginally hawkish for the divided BOE ahead of the Feb 2 meeting and could influence MPC members leaning towards slowing to 25bp in line with the Fed to shift back to 50bp. Markets are currently pricing around 44bp.

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