MNI BRIEF: Canada PM Carney Derides Trump's 51st State Idea

MNI BRIEF: Carney Sworn In As PM, Names Champagne To Finance

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 14

MNI BRIEF: China February M2 Stays At 7% Y/Y

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW2: Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 199; OIL RIGS 139; GAS RIGS 60

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 592; OIL RIGS 487; GAS RIGS 100

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: DE, NL and FR Due Monday

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Still Less Than 60bp OF BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

GBP STIRs seemingly reacting to the overnight bid in Tsys as opposed to the downtick in Bunds, resulting in modest dovish moves.

  • BoE-dated OIS flat to 2bp more dovish across ’25 meetings.
  • 58.5bp cuts priced through year-end, with ~80% odds of a cut priced through May and ~26.5bp showing through June, sticking to multi-week ranges.
  • We still look for a cut in May.
  • SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
  • We have entered the MPC’s quiet period ahead of next week’s monetary policy decision.
  • An unchanged Bank Rate is almost universally expected here (pricing covering the event has tended to 0bp in recent weeks).
  • Deputy Governor Ramsden’s speech on Friday 28 February (in which he sounded less dovish but not completely ruling out a sequential rate cut vote) and last week’s TSC hearing (in which Governor Bailey sounded no closer to voting for a sequential cut) have left the arithmetic pointing firmly in favour of a hold next week.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less
167 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

GBP STIRs seemingly reacting to the overnight bid in Tsys as opposed to the downtick in Bunds, resulting in modest dovish moves.

  • BoE-dated OIS flat to 2bp more dovish across ’25 meetings.
  • 58.5bp cuts priced through year-end, with ~80% odds of a cut priced through May and ~26.5bp showing through June, sticking to multi-week ranges.
  • We still look for a cut in May.
  • SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
  • We have entered the MPC’s quiet period ahead of next week’s monetary policy decision.
  • An unchanged Bank Rate is almost universally expected here (pricing covering the event has tended to 0bp in recent weeks).
  • Deputy Governor Ramsden’s speech on Friday 28 February (in which he sounded less dovish but not completely ruling out a sequential rate cut vote) and last week’s TSC hearing (in which Governor Bailey sounded no closer to voting for a sequential cut) have left the arithmetic pointing firmly in favour of a hold next week.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less