Free Trial

Still Under Pressure, 4.45% Nears In 10s

US TSYS

Early London/European reaction to Asia-Pac price action weighed on Tsys, with a second round of selling seen in recent trade.

  • TYM4 last -0-15 at 109-06, with fresh session lows (109-05) hit in recent trade.
  • TY volume runs comfortably above average for this time of the day, at ~358K lots.
  • Next tech support comes in at 109-00, although there may be some interest at the 4.45% equivalent for 10-Year yields (109-04+), which is just below the base of today’s range.
  • Cash Tsy yields are 2.5-4.0bp higher, intermediates lead the sell off.
  • 10s have printed a high of 4.448% so far, the highest level seen since late Nov.
  • Continued reassessment of the Fed rate path following Friday’s labor market report keeps the space under pressure.
  • FOMC-dated OIS now shows ~13bp of cuts through June (~52% odds of a cut), with ~62bp of cuts priced through the end of ’24.
  • There wasn’t any meaningful escalation in geopolitical tensions over the weekend, after Middle East worry was evident late Friday. That will also be factoring into the sell off.
  • NY Fed inflation expectations data and comments from Fed dove Goolsbee are due today.
  • Wednesday’s CPI is the next key data release. FOMC meeting minutes are also due Wednesday.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.