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Still Underperforming Softer USD Trend, Tokyo CPI Headlines Busy Data Docket


Yen generally lagged the USD sell-off through Thursday's session. The currency only finished 0.12% firmer against the dollar. USD/JPY got close to 133.00 post the Asia close, but pulled back to 132.30/35 late in the NY session. We sit slightly higher now at 132.60/70. The 50-day EMA comes in at 133.38, a break above would signal a stronger reversal higher in the pair. Support on the downside comes in at 130.76, the Mar 29 low.

  • Yen followed the trajectory of US yields fairly closely, with the US 2yr now back close to 4.12%, although the 10yr edged down slightly to 3.55%.
  • The currency was weaker on crosses amid the continued recovery in equity sentiment. Yen has lost 1.44% the past week, easily the worst performer in the G10 space.
  • Outside of broader risk drivers, the local calendar is quite busy today. We get Feb jobless and job-to-applicant ratio data.
  • More focus will rest on Tokyo Mar CPI though. The market expects the headline y/y to ease back to 3.2% from 3.4%, while ex fresh food is forecast at 3.1% (3.3% prior) and core (ex fresh food and energy) at 3.2%, versus a revised 3.1% prior read.
  • Also out is Feb retail sales, department store sales and Feb industrial production. Later on, Feb housing starts also print.

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