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STIR: 40% Odds Of 50bp SNB Cut Priced

STIR

~35bp of cuts are priced for today’s SNB decision, with a cumulative ~60bp of easing showing through the Dec ’24 meeting.

  • A 25bp cut is the most likely outcome today, but there is a risk of a larger move.
  • Inflation has slowed further since the June meeting, remaining well below the SNB’s target and its Q3 forecast.
  • There will likely be a downward revision to September’s updated inflation projection, regardless of it being conditioned on a new, lower policy rate.
  • Click for our full SNB preview.
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~35bp of cuts are priced for today’s SNB decision, with a cumulative ~60bp of easing showing through the Dec ’24 meeting.

  • A 25bp cut is the most likely outcome today, but there is a risk of a larger move.
  • Inflation has slowed further since the June meeting, remaining well below the SNB’s target and its Q3 forecast.
  • There will likely be a downward revision to September’s updated inflation projection, regardless of it being conditioned on a new, lower policy rate.
  • Click for our full SNB preview.