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STIR: 75bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through ’25, Comments From Pill Eyed

STIR
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Modest hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs following Trump’s tariff threats against China, Canada & Mexico.

  • Downticks in equities seem to be countering some of the initial hawkish adjustments.
  • SONIA futures now flat to -2.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS pricing 2bp of cuts for next month, 21.5bp of easing through January, 30.5bp of easing through March, 54bp of easing through June and 75bp of cuts through December ’25. Those contracts are little changed to 1bp more hawkish on the day.
  • Comments from BoE chief economist Pill (15:00 London) headline the UK calendar today.
  • Pill will testify in front of the Economic Affairs Committee (EAC; the Lords' equivalent of the Treasury Select Committee), regarding "Economic Inactivity: Welfare and long-term sickness."
  • He had previously seen greater risks of the BoE’s “case 3” (structural risks that inflation will be higher) than Bailey and Lombardelli - and dissented against a cut in August (but not in November).
  • His comments surrounding those risks will be closely watched.

BoE Meeting

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Modest hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs following Trump’s tariff threats against China, Canada & Mexico.

  • Downticks in equities seem to be countering some of the initial hawkish adjustments.
  • SONIA futures now flat to -2.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS pricing 2bp of cuts for next month, 21.5bp of easing through January, 30.5bp of easing through March, 54bp of easing through June and 75bp of cuts through December ’25. Those contracts are little changed to 1bp more hawkish on the day.
  • Comments from BoE chief economist Pill (15:00 London) headline the UK calendar today.
  • Pill will testify in front of the Economic Affairs Committee (EAC; the Lords' equivalent of the Treasury Select Committee), regarding "Economic Inactivity: Welfare and long-term sickness."
  • He had previously seen greater risks of the BoE’s “case 3” (structural risks that inflation will be higher) than Bailey and Lombardelli - and dissented against a cut in August (but not in November).
  • His comments surrounding those risks will be closely watched.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less