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STIR: Dovish Fed Pricing Shift On CPI, 20bp Cuts Priced For Next Month

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Soft unrounded core CPI data drives the initial dovish reaction in the short end, with the recent hawkish positioning trend probably factoring into the move as well.

  • Fed Funds futures show 20bp of cuts for next month, 42bp through March, 60bp through June and 78bp through December ’25.
  • That compares to 15.5bp, 36bp, 57bp and 68bp ahead of the data.
  • Little to move the needle in initial comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed will not be an FOMC voter until ’26), a reminder that he already spoke yesterday.
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Soft unrounded core CPI data drives the initial dovish reaction in the short end, with the recent hawkish positioning trend probably factoring into the move as well.

  • Fed Funds futures show 20bp of cuts for next month, 42bp through March, 60bp through June and 78bp through December ’25.
  • That compares to 15.5bp, 36bp, 57bp and 68bp ahead of the data.
  • Little to move the needle in initial comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed will not be an FOMC voter until ’26), a reminder that he already spoke yesterday.