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STIR: ECB Implied Rates Fall Following Dovish ECB-Speak

STIR
BulletFixed Income Bullets

Dovish comments from ECB Chief Economist Lane and GC member Villeroy have prompted ECB-dated OIS to unwind some of last week’s hawkish adjustments.

  • There are 62bps of cuts priced through the remainder of 2024 at typing, up from ~59bps before the headlines.
  • Implied 2024 cuts reached a year-to-date ‘hawkish’ extreme of ~55bps last Friday.
  • In addition to the colour in our EGB post above, we note that Lane’s speech provides a much clearer outline of what the ECB is monitoring when deciding how fast to ease policy rates, relative to GC peers that have spoken in recent weeks.
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Dovish comments from ECB Chief Economist Lane and GC member Villeroy have prompted ECB-dated OIS to unwind some of last week’s hawkish adjustments.

  • There are 62bps of cuts priced through the remainder of 2024 at typing, up from ~59bps before the headlines.
  • Implied 2024 cuts reached a year-to-date ‘hawkish’ extreme of ~55bps last Friday.
  • In addition to the colour in our EGB post above, we note that Lane’s speech provides a much clearer outline of what the ECB is monitoring when deciding how fast to ease policy rates, relative to GC peers that have spoken in recent weeks.