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STIR: EUR Rates See Little Reaction To Lagarde; 40bps Cuts Priced Through '24

STIR
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EUR rates saw little reaction to today’s ECB speakers, including this afternoon’s panel appearance by President Lagarde - who added little new to the recent policy debate.

  • As such, ECB implied rates drifted a little lower through the day - but remain rangebound, with OIS currently showing 40bps of easing through the remainder of ’24 (vs 39bps this morning). There is still a ~70% implied probability of a 25bps rate cut at the September meeting.
  • Several ECB speakers are also scheduled tomorrow, for the Sintra forum’s final day, but major deviations from previous commentary should not be expected.
  • On the data front, services PMIs (finals for France, Germany and the Eurozone) headline. Broader macro focus remains on Friday’s US labour market report.

 

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EUR rates saw little reaction to today’s ECB speakers, including this afternoon’s panel appearance by President Lagarde - who added little new to the recent policy debate.

  • As such, ECB implied rates drifted a little lower through the day - but remain rangebound, with OIS currently showing 40bps of easing through the remainder of ’24 (vs 39bps this morning). There is still a ~70% implied probability of a 25bps rate cut at the September meeting.
  • Several ECB speakers are also scheduled tomorrow, for the Sintra forum’s final day, but major deviations from previous commentary should not be expected.
  • On the data front, services PMIs (finals for France, Germany and the Eurozone) headline. Broader macro focus remains on Friday’s US labour market report.

 

Keep reading...Show less