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STIR: Euribor Futures Little Changed; Lane Reiterates ECB June Cut Intentions

STIR
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Euribor futures are essentially unchanged through the blues.

  • UK and U.S. holidays should reduce liquidity and limit volume today.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts remain close to last week’s year-to-date hawkish extremes, with 58bps of cuts priced through the remainder of 2024.
  • In an interview with the FT released this morning, ECB Chief Economist Lane re-iterated the Bank’s intention to cut rates at next week’s meeting (OIS discount a ~90% probability of a 25bps cut).
  • Lane did not commit to any path for rates beyond the June gathering. He noted that rates need to “be restrictive all year long”, but that this could still entail further easing of policy rates.
  • Elsewhere, well-known doves Panetta, Cipollone and Centeno unsurprisingly advocated for a cut in June.
  • Lane is scheduled to speak again at 1200BST today, with the hawkish Holzmann due this afternoon.
  • The German IFO survey headlines today’s data calendar, with regional focus on this week’s May flash inflation releases, beginning with Germany on Wednesday.
Meeting DateESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.687-22.3
Jul-243.663-24.7
Sep-243.512-39.8
Oct-243.451-45.9
Dec-243.330-58.0
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Euribor futures are essentially unchanged through the blues.

  • UK and U.S. holidays should reduce liquidity and limit volume today.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts remain close to last week’s year-to-date hawkish extremes, with 58bps of cuts priced through the remainder of 2024.
  • In an interview with the FT released this morning, ECB Chief Economist Lane re-iterated the Bank’s intention to cut rates at next week’s meeting (OIS discount a ~90% probability of a 25bps cut).
  • Lane did not commit to any path for rates beyond the June gathering. He noted that rates need to “be restrictive all year long”, but that this could still entail further easing of policy rates.
  • Elsewhere, well-known doves Panetta, Cipollone and Centeno unsurprisingly advocated for a cut in June.
  • Lane is scheduled to speak again at 1200BST today, with the hawkish Holzmann due this afternoon.
  • The German IFO survey headlines today’s data calendar, with regional focus on this week’s May flash inflation releases, beginning with Germany on Wednesday.
Meeting DateESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.687-22.3
Jul-243.663-24.7
Sep-243.512-39.8
Oct-243.451-45.9
Dec-243.330-58.0