STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are 0.5-2.5bp lower on the day for meetings out to mid-2025, with moves helped by large declines for WTI futures as geopolitical risk premium fades.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 22.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 65bp Jan and 121bp June.
- Today’s three scheduled Fed speakers have already appeared since the strong payrolls report whilst Bostic has also spoken since Thursday's CPI. Considering Kugler’s subject matter, Daly is likely of most note - on Oct 9 saying she saw one or two more cuts as spanning the range of likely moves this year. Recall that Bostic was most hawkish, being “totally comfortable” with skipping a cut this year as his dot from the September SEP only had one more cut.
- 1130ET - Daly (’24 voter) keynote remarks (text + Q&A)
- 1300ET – Kugler (voter) in discussion on careers and diversity (no text)
- 1900ET – Bostic (’24) on economic outlook and small business (no text)
- For those out yesterday, Gov. Waller (voter) later on conveyed a more cautious tone on policy easing ahead, compared with his Sept 20 post-50bp rate cut comments when he sounded very open to another 50bp cut. He appears to have ruled out a 50bp cut on the basis of recent data, though says his "baseline" of "reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year" remains unchanged.
- In Q&A, he wouldn’t be drawn on whether his call for "proceed[ing] with more caution" meant a move to quarterly cuts/a skip in November: "I don't think I used the word quarterly"... [those terms are] "in the eye of the beholder".
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