MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

UK NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.6 (FCST: 50.0); OCT 49.9

EUROZONE NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 45.2 (FCST: 46.0); OCT 46.0

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, November 21

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

GERMANY NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 43.2 (FCST: 43.0); OCT 43.0

FRANCE NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 43.2 (FCST:44.5); OCT 44.5

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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STIR: Fed Implied Rates Ease From Highs On Soft European PMIs

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have been weighed by bleak flash Eurozone readings showing surprisingly weak service sector activity along with a broad miss for UK PMIs (with the Eurozone findings having the greater impact).
  • The Dec implied rate is 1bp lower, Mar 2bp lower and Jun 3bp lower. That is however after the Jun’25 implied rate closed at fresh cycle highs yesterday, marking just 50bp of cuts.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 21bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 53bp June.
  • US flash PMIs for November are in focus today for a first look at activity and broader sentiment after the US election results.
  • When it comes to heavily weighted services figures, the PMI has directionally been poor relative to ISM services in recent months, with the PMI slipping from 55.7 in Aug to 55.0 Oct versus ISM services rising from 51.5 in Aug to 56.0 in Oct. The outright level has however been a useful indicator of continued robust strength in the services sector. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have been weighed by bleak flash Eurozone readings showing surprisingly weak service sector activity along with a broad miss for UK PMIs (with the Eurozone findings having the greater impact).
  • The Dec implied rate is 1bp lower, Mar 2bp lower and Jun 3bp lower. That is however after the Jun’25 implied rate closed at fresh cycle highs yesterday, marking just 50bp of cuts.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 21bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 53bp June.
  • US flash PMIs for November are in focus today for a first look at activity and broader sentiment after the US election results.
  • When it comes to heavily weighted services figures, the PMI has directionally been poor relative to ISM services in recent months, with the PMI slipping from 55.7 in Aug to 55.0 Oct versus ISM services rising from 51.5 in Aug to 56.0 in Oct. The outright level has however been a useful indicator of continued robust strength in the services sector.