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STIR: Fed Rate Path Further Off Cycle Highs Post-Thanksgiving

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower through European hours in a more pronounced decline after edging lower through yesterday’s holiday-thinned short session.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16.3bp Dec (+0.4bp), 23bp Jan (+1.1bp), 36bp Mar (+1.2bp) and 55bp June (+2.3bp).
  • It sees the largest tilt towards a 25bp cut vs a pause from the FOMC next month since the hawkish reaction to Fedspeak from Kugler and Powell on Nov 14 the Jun’25 at its lowest since Nov 21.
  • At 16bp priced though, it still remains quite closely in the balance with next Friday’s payrolls (Dec 6) and the following Wednesday’s CPI (Dec 11) reports likely playing a pivotal role.
  • There is no data or Fedspeak scheduled today, leaving headlines/positioning in the driving seat.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower through European hours in a more pronounced decline after edging lower through yesterday’s holiday-thinned short session.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16.3bp Dec (+0.4bp), 23bp Jan (+1.1bp), 36bp Mar (+1.2bp) and 55bp June (+2.3bp).
  • It sees the largest tilt towards a 25bp cut vs a pause from the FOMC next month since the hawkish reaction to Fedspeak from Kugler and Powell on Nov 14 the Jun’25 at its lowest since Nov 21.
  • At 16bp priced though, it still remains quite closely in the balance with next Friday’s payrolls (Dec 6) and the following Wednesday’s CPI (Dec 11) reports likely playing a pivotal role.
  • There is no data or Fedspeak scheduled today, leaving headlines/positioning in the driving seat.