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STIR: Fed Rate Path Holds Recent Declines, Notable Fedspeak Late On

STIR
USCentral Bank NewsFederal ReserveBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s early close. For a quick comparison over the Thanksgiving period for those away, the Dec rate is 0.5bp higher since Wednesday’s close, Jan is unchanged and the Jun’25 and Dec’25 rates are 2.5-3bp lower.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 36bp Mar and 54bp Jun.
  • Today sees the final US mfg PMI and ISM mfg in initial data focus before potentially important Fed appearances from permanent voters Waller and Williams.
  • Gov. Waller speaks on the economic outlook as part of a speech on “Building a Better Fed Framework” at 1515ET (text + Q&A)
  • NY Fed’s Williams gives keynote remarks followed by Q&A to the Queens Chamber of Commerce at 1630ET.
  • Fedspeak has turned more hawkish since the Nov FOMC, with some members discussing potential for a pause or higher neutral rate estimates. Waller, however, last spoke on the economy and monetary policy back in mid-October and has in the past been used to provide important steers for the market. 

  • Williams has spoken more recently however, telling Barron’s on Nov 15 (released Nov 21) that the Fed is “not quite there yet” on inflation, he doesn’t see any signs of a recession from data and sees potential growth closer to 2.25-2.5% vs 2% pre-pandemic.

      

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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s early close. For a quick comparison over the Thanksgiving period for those away, the Dec rate is 0.5bp higher since Wednesday’s close, Jan is unchanged and the Jun’25 and Dec’25 rates are 2.5-3bp lower.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 36bp Mar and 54bp Jun.
  • Today sees the final US mfg PMI and ISM mfg in initial data focus before potentially important Fed appearances from permanent voters Waller and Williams.
  • Gov. Waller speaks on the economic outlook as part of a speech on “Building a Better Fed Framework” at 1515ET (text + Q&A)
  • NY Fed’s Williams gives keynote remarks followed by Q&A to the Queens Chamber of Commerce at 1630ET.
  • Fedspeak has turned more hawkish since the Nov FOMC, with some members discussing potential for a pause or higher neutral rate estimates. Waller, however, last spoke on the economy and monetary policy back in mid-October and has in the past been used to provide important steers for the market. 

  • Williams has spoken more recently however, telling Barron’s on Nov 15 (released Nov 21) that the Fed is “not quite there yet” on inflation, he doesn’t see any signs of a recession from data and sees potential growth closer to 2.25-2.5% vs 2% pre-pandemic.