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STIR: Fed Seen More Likely To Cut 25bp Than Pause In Dec

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower overnight (Dec -0.5bp, Jan -1bp and June -3bp) with focus on today’s heavy data docket including second revisions to Q3 GDP and jobless claims before the monthly PCE report for October.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 34bp Mar and 52bp June.
  • December pricing saw a further hit after the FOMC minutes yesterday didn’t see an overt push for a pause at the meeting (even if somewhat stale by more hawkish Fedspeak since then), with Fed Funds seeing the meeting as more in favor of a 25bp cut.
  • Further out, today’s decline in mid-2025 rates only comes after it got close to last week’s fresh cycle highs. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower overnight (Dec -0.5bp, Jan -1bp and June -3bp) with focus on today’s heavy data docket including second revisions to Q3 GDP and jobless claims before the monthly PCE report for October.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 34bp Mar and 52bp June.
  • December pricing saw a further hit after the FOMC minutes yesterday didn’t see an overt push for a pause at the meeting (even if somewhat stale by more hawkish Fedspeak since then), with Fed Funds seeing the meeting as more in favor of a 25bp cut.
  • Further out, today’s decline in mid-2025 rates only comes after it got close to last week’s fresh cycle highs.