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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have extended a sizeable push higher today having firmly reversed the overnight extension of dovish pricing seen in a continuation of Powell’s comments Friday.
- Higher WTI futures have no doubt helped, courtesy of Libyan supply disruption, but the reversal is large considering surprisingly soft core durable goods orders in preliminary data for July.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 32bp Sep, 65bp Nov, 100bp Dec, 130bp Jan and 193bp Jun.
- The 100bp of cut over the three meetings left for the year (still all with between 32-35bp of cuts per meetings rather than a faster start and then tapering off towards 25bp clips) is more firmly within recent ranges having shifted from 105/106bp before US desks filtered in today.
- SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) speaks on Bloomberg TV at 1400ET but shouldn’t have too much impact coming so soon after Powell. She told the FT Aug 15 that recent US economic data have given the Fed “more confidence” that inflation is under control and it’s time to consider adjusting policy rates, but the economy is “not in an urgent place” and urged a “prudent” approach to policy.
- Labor data is keenly in focus, and the labor differential in tomorrow’s Conference Board consumer survey could be a near-term highlight awaiting GDP/PCE data later this week.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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