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STIR: Just Under 65bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25

STIR
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SONIA futures mostly off session lows alongside gilts, last flat to -4.0. Contracts failed to retest November lows.

  • BoE-dated OIS also off hawkish session extremes, last little changed to 4bp more hawkish on the day. Table of exact pricing levels shown below, sticking within post-Budget ranges.
  • BoE MPC member Greene will take part in a fireside chat on “the future of inflation” after the close (18:30 London, no text, online registration required).
  • We previously identified Greene as a potential dissenter against the cut delivered at the November meeting, but she voted in line with the majority, supporting the latest leg of easing.
  • She could provide further colour on her vote/thinking at this event.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s CPI data presents the headline risk event this week.

BoE Meeting

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SONIA futures mostly off session lows alongside gilts, last flat to -4.0. Contracts failed to retest November lows.

  • BoE-dated OIS also off hawkish session extremes, last little changed to 4bp more hawkish on the day. Table of exact pricing levels shown below, sticking within post-Budget ranges.
  • BoE MPC member Greene will take part in a fireside chat on “the future of inflation” after the close (18:30 London, no text, online registration required).
  • We previously identified Greene as a potential dissenter against the cut delivered at the November meeting, but she voted in line with the majority, supporting the latest leg of easing.
  • She could provide further colour on her vote/thinking at this event.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s CPI data presents the headline risk event this week.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less