STIR: Light Dovish Repricing In ECB-dated OIS Post JOLTS

ECB-dated OIS have seen a light wave of dovish repricing following the lower-than-expected US job openings data, with 63bps of easing now priced through 2024 (vs ~61.5bps pre-data).

• A 25bp cut at next Thursday’s meeting remains fully priced and has been well signalled by multiple ECB speakers over the past few weeks.
• Euribor futures are +1.5 to +7.5 ticks through the blues today, though ERZ5 and ERZ6 were unable to test early-August highs post-data.
• ECB-speak should begin to dry up as we approach the start of the pre-meeting quiet period (on Friday).
• The hawkish Holzmann is scheduled to speak at an event on CO2 pricing tomorrow at 1500BST/1600CET (and so is unlikely to contain much monetary policy-relevant commentary).
• We note that any interviews conducted before the quiet period begins can still be published before next Thursday’s meeting.
• Elsewhere, the Spanish Government appointed Jose Luis Escriva as the new Bank of Spain Governor, in line with reports crossing yesterday.