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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSTIR: October ECB Pricing In Focus Ahead Of Inflation/Sentiment Data
Softer than expected inflation/activity data may provide scope for October ECB cut pricing to extend, even if it goes against Governing Council preferences for quarterly rate cuts.
- ECB-dated OIS price 65bps of easing through the remainder of 2024, and 38bps through the October meeting (a 25bps cut at the Sep 12 gathering remains fully priced).
- The August flash inflation round kicks off with Spanish figures at 0800BST/0900CET, before German state-level data at 0900BST.
- Today also sees a panel appearance from ECB Chief Economist Lane. Slides will be available on the EBC’s website at 1015BST, but further headlines may be limited (this is the same event that BoE’s Mann is attending, and there were no headlines sent for her appearance yesterday).
- The European Commission’s consumer/business sentiment indices are also due today.
- The macro calendar may thus provide scope for Euribor futures to break out from this week’s recent ranges. ERZ5 is -0.5 at 97.815, having traded in a ~10 tick range the last 7 trading days.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 3.415 | -25.1 |
Oct-24 | 3.291 | -37.6 |
Dec-24 | 3.014 | -65.2 |
Jan-25 | 2.833 | -83.3 |
Mar-25 | 2.596 | -107.0 |
Apr-25 | 2.467 | -120.0 |
Jun-25 | 2.304 | -136.2 |
Jul-25 | 2.234 | -143.2 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.