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STIR: Small Hawkish Adjustments In Fed Pricing After Data

STIR
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Modest hawkish adjustments in Fed funds futures following the lower-than-expected weekly and continuing jobless claims readings.

  • The latest prints extended the surprisingly resilient run in the data, which has typically generated larger-than-usual market reaction in recent times given the Fed’s increased sensitivity to further weakness in the labour market.
  • The uptick in the Philly Fed prices paid sub-index will also be factoring in.
  • ~33bp of cuts priced in for November, ~70bp of cuts priced through year-end and ~174bp of cuts priced through June ’25.
  • That compares to ~35bp, ~72bp and ~178bp heading into the data.
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Modest hawkish adjustments in Fed funds futures following the lower-than-expected weekly and continuing jobless claims readings.

  • The latest prints extended the surprisingly resilient run in the data, which has typically generated larger-than-usual market reaction in recent times given the Fed’s increased sensitivity to further weakness in the labour market.
  • The uptick in the Philly Fed prices paid sub-index will also be factoring in.
  • ~33bp of cuts priced in for November, ~70bp of cuts priced through year-end and ~174bp of cuts priced through June ’25.
  • That compares to ~35bp, ~72bp and ~178bp heading into the data.