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STIR: Steady Open For SONIA, 83bp Of Cuts Priced Through '25

STIR
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No real movement in GBP STIRs this morning, with Asia-Pac developments only impacting local rates markets and UK headline flow remaining subdued.

  • BoE-dated OIS essentially flat, showing 30.5bp of cuts through March and 83.5bp of cuts through December ’25.
  • SONIA futures also pretty much flat.
  • Comments from BoE Governor Bailey due this morning (09:00 London).
  • As a reference point, Bailey recently indicated that his central view was closest to “case 2” i.e. gradual cuts (and the case on which the November MPR forecasts are conditioned on).
  • However, he agreed with Lombardelli that although he saw broadly balanced risks of case 1 (need to cut faster) and case 3 (structural changes mean higher for longer) that he saw greater consequences stemming from case 3.
  • He did also say that a month before he had seen increasing risks of case 1.
  • Final services PMI data is also due today.

BoE Meeting

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No real movement in GBP STIRs this morning, with Asia-Pac developments only impacting local rates markets and UK headline flow remaining subdued.

  • BoE-dated OIS essentially flat, showing 30.5bp of cuts through March and 83.5bp of cuts through December ’25.
  • SONIA futures also pretty much flat.
  • Comments from BoE Governor Bailey due this morning (09:00 London).
  • As a reference point, Bailey recently indicated that his central view was closest to “case 2” i.e. gradual cuts (and the case on which the November MPR forecasts are conditioned on).
  • However, he agreed with Lombardelli that although he saw broadly balanced risks of case 1 (need to cut faster) and case 3 (structural changes mean higher for longer) that he saw greater consequences stemming from case 3.
  • He did also say that a month before he had seen increasing risks of case 1.
  • Final services PMI data is also due today.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less