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Stocks Stage Late Rebound From Steep First Half Losses

US TSYS

Overall volumes rather muted Monday, traders pre-occupied ahead midweek CPI and Friday's Jan Eurodollar option expiration. Surprise: Stocks higher late.

  • Stock indexes managed late session rebound, Nasdaq topping 4681.0 late vs. 4575.0 low -- no obvious headline driver but higher Tsy yld headwinds eased around midday, trading desks reporting several large program buys near lows.
  • Medium term focus on finding value in downside puts targeting first rate hike at the March 15/16 FOMC policy annc.
  • Note -- various dealers bringing there liftoff expectation forward to March as well: GS, JPM, MS and NatWest for starters as well as more details over Balance Sheet normalization.
  • Markets eager for details of timing on Quantitative Tightening as well. NatWest strategists say the June 14/15 FOMC a close call between second rate hike vs. QT, but not both. "This decision should be highly data dependent. We lean to the Fed announcing a second interest rate hike at the June Meeting, but we envision strong risk to an early start of QT."
  • Tuesday -- Fed Chairman Powell nomination hearing with Senate committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Tuesday at 1000ET.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 4bps at 0.9024%, 5-Yr is up 3bps at 1.5285%, 10-Yr is up 0.7bps at 1.7692%, and 30-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.1028%.
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