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Strong BRL Rebound, DI Curve Seen Flatter Ahead Of BCB

BRAZIL
  • Strong rebound for the Brazilian Real now in positive territory and inching towards the major support area just above 5.00 before the Copom meeting tomorrow.
  • The DI curve is flatter with higher swap rates in the front end as markets anticipate the third 75 bps hike in a row and a hawkish message from the central bank tomorrow. Swap rate contracts expiring in Jan 2031, however, are 7 basis points lower reflecting the BRL gains.
  • Our full preview for the BCB meeting can be found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/10461/MNI%20Brazil%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20June%202021.pdf
    • USDBRL down 0.45% at 5.04
    • BRLMXN up 0.94% at 3.98
  • Brazil DI Swaps:
    • 1-yr +6 bps at 5.39%
    • 2-yr +2 bps at 6.99%
    • 5-yr -5 bps at 8.19%
    • 10-yr -7 bps at 9.02%
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