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Strong Data Underscores Need For Second 75Bp Hike

US TSYS

Tsy futures broadly weaker after the bell, yld curves marginally steeper w/ long end underperforming after stronger than estimated June employ report +372k vs. +268k est, net revisions for April/May decline 74k.

  • Strong data underscored a 75bp hike at end of month while markets got a little carried away pricing in small chance of 100bp hike (<5%) before moderating the move in the first half (balance of White pack (EDZ2-EDH3 currently -0.085-0.100 vs. -0.100-0.170 lows).
  • New York Fed President John Williams said Friday he's revised down his expectations for U.S. economic growth and now expects the unemployment rate to rise past 4% next year as the central bank remains resolutely focused on restoring price stability. Williams later went on to say 75-50bps rate hike at the end of this month is the "right positioning" amid "sky high" inflation.
  • Atlanta Fed Bostic was "fully supportive" over a second consecutive 75bps hike in July, confident the move would not hurt the economy.
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