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Strong End To Q2 For Personal Spending [1/2]

US DATA
  • Today’s PCE data revealed that yesterday’s stronger than expected Q2 growth for personal consumption (1.6% vs cons 1.2%) consisted of a strong end to the quarter with strong implications heading into Q3.
  • Specifically, real personal spending increased 0.4% M/M (cons 0.3 but all before yesterday’s Q2 data) and followed upward revisions to both May (0.1 from 0.0) and April (0.3 from 0.2).
  • The strong 4.2% in Q1 was driven entirely by the 1.3% surge back in January before two flat months in Feb and Mar that skewered momentum in Q2, but the opposite is true heading into Q3.
  • Indeed, the first estimate from Altanta Fed’s GDPNow points to a 3.5% real GDP growth.

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