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Strong Initial Claims, Less So Continuing

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were notably stronger than expected, falling from 231k to 211k (cons 232K) to their lowest since the week of Sep 23.
  • After some volatility of late, including a surprising spike to 241k in the week to Nov 18, the four-week average dips to 227k, not far above the 218k averaged through 2019 in what was a historically tight labour market.
  • The Fed is looking for signs of a cooling labour market and payrolls growth closer to an equilibrium 100k per month but these weekly insured unemployment claims don't show a sign of that happening yet.
  • One weaker area of the report was continuing claims, broadly as expected at 1671k but in doing so not unwinding what was thought could have been distorted higher by the Thanksgiving holiday, back at highs since February.

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