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Strong Jobs, Even Stronger Labor Supply and Softer Wage Growth

CANADA DATA
  • Employment was clearly stronger than expected in June at +60k (cons +20k) after -33k, and with a much more favourable full-time/part-time split of +110/-50k.
  • The move was helped by a bounce back in 15-24 employment, with +30k after May’s -77k, but prime-age employment also increased a healthy +42k after +63k in May.
  • However, a resurgence in labour supply (+114k) meant a higher-than-expected u/e rate. It printed 5.38% compared to consensus of 5.3 that had seen a decent skew to 5.2 and with only one analyst looking for 5.4%. It was the highest since Feb'22.
  • The weakest spot of the report came from wage growth though, something the BoC is looking very closely at. The myriad of average hourly measures all slowed from 5.1% Y/Y in May, with total at 4.2% Y/Y, full-time at 4.1% Y/Y and the Bloomberg series of permanent at 3.9% Y/Y (cons 4.6%).

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