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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
February labour market data were expected to bounce given the ABS warned that data had been weak due to people taking time off between jobs over the holidays. But that bounce was a lot sharper than expected signalling that the labour market remains very tight. There were 116.5k new jobs in February with January revised up to 15.3k. Also, the unemployment rate fell 0.4pp to 3.7%. The RBA said this week that it isn’t “ruling anything in or out” and this data suggests that is an appropriate position and also that easing isn’t imminent.
- Given the noise, more months of labour data are needed to determine how tight market is easing plus it is also worth looking at averages.
- Total employment growth improved to a robust 3.2% y/y from 2.6%, the highest since June 2023. Looking through the noise, 6-month average job gains rose to 32.5k not too far below July’s 36.9k, but this is likely to fall further over the year as the economy is slowing.
- The ABS said that there were “larger-than-usual numbers of people in December and January who had a job that they were waiting to start”, more so than in February 2023. In 2023 around 4.3% of employed didn’t have a job in February, whereas in 2023 it was 4.7%. This is up from 3.9% over 2015-2020. Those waiting to start work in March are back to usual rates.
Australia unemployment rate %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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