MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 27

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MNI JAPAN NOV JOBLESS RATE AT 2.5%, UNCHANGED FROM OCT

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -93 BCF TO 3,529 BCF DEC 27 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -1K TO 219K IN DEC 21 WK

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.0% V YR AGO MO

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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AUSSIE BONDS: Strong Session As Trading Resumed After Xmas Break

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session highs on a data/newsflow-light session. 

  • Slowing wages growth and an economy barely out of first gear have given the Reserve Bank more ammunition to consider an interest rate cut at its first meeting of 2025, providing a timeline for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to call the federal election. (See Brisbane Times link)
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. Friday's US data calendar: Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$101.3B, -$98.3B prior rev), Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.1%) and Retail Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.3%) at 0830ET.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6bps richer after the extended Christmas holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -19bps.
  • Swap rates are 6bps lower.
  • The bills strip is stronger, with pricing +2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer today. Market pricing has a 25bp rate cut more than fully priced by April (130%), with a 63% probability of a February cut.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see RBA's Jones Fireside Chat at the Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum.
  • In terms of data, CoreLogic Home Values and S&P Global PMI Mfg are due on January 2. 
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ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session highs on a data/newsflow-light session. 

  • Slowing wages growth and an economy barely out of first gear have given the Reserve Bank more ammunition to consider an interest rate cut at its first meeting of 2025, providing a timeline for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to call the federal election. (See Brisbane Times link)
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. Friday's US data calendar: Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$101.3B, -$98.3B prior rev), Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.1%) and Retail Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.3%) at 0830ET.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6bps richer after the extended Christmas holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -19bps.
  • Swap rates are 6bps lower.
  • The bills strip is stronger, with pricing +2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer today. Market pricing has a 25bp rate cut more than fully priced by April (130%), with a 63% probability of a February cut.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see RBA's Jones Fireside Chat at the Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum.
  • In terms of data, CoreLogic Home Values and S&P Global PMI Mfg are due on January 2.