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Strong US Payrolls Prompts Blip Across CE3 FX

CEE FX
  • The strong US jobs report has prompted a further unwind of some of the pricing of early Fed cuts. While the accompanying spike in US yields and bid in the greenback has weighed on the EM FX basket overall, CE3 FX has shown some resilience, with EURHUF and EURPLN having pared the majority of the post-data spikes. EURCZK, on the other hand, has so far held onto its gains. The cross is trading at a fresh multi-year high, up 0.4% at typing.
  • For EURHUF, the broader pullback is still considered technically corrective with key support marked at 382.32, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal and open 378.59, the Jan 16 low.
  • Meanwhile, the latest sell-off in EURPLN signals the end of the correction between Dec 13 - Jan 17. A continuation lower would open 4.2935, the Dec 13 low and key support. This would open 4.2371, the Feb 14 2020 low.
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