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Strong US PMI Data Prompts Greenback Recovery

FOREX
  • After initially fading in early Thursday trade, the USD index received a firm boost following the stronger than expected US PMI data, which indicated its sharpest growth for just over two years, driven by services.
  • This keeps the DXY close to the week’s best levels, just below the 105 mark, as markets once again push back their bets for the first Fed rate cut later this year.
  • Overall, G10 currency adjustments The Japanese Yen underperforms amid the yield move and USDJPY has consolidated back above the 157.00 handle, despite some initial noisy two-way price action after the breach.
  • The stronger greenback also saw the earlier Euro bid, kick started by the stronger German PMIs, dissipate and EURUSD is currently edging back towards the 1.08 handle as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • NZD is moderately outperforming, up 0.15% against the dollar. New Zealand retail sales for Q1 rose +0.5%, against a consensus expectation for a fall and added some bullish sentiment to the hawkish-to-expectations RBNZ meeting earlier in the week.
  • Participants remain aware of the 0.8500 handle in EURGBP marking an important support over the past 18 months. The cross has failed to close below 0.8500 since August 2022, with several tests over the past year being well respected.
  • Technically we noted that Wednesday’s move resulted in a break of short-term support at 0.8531, the Apr 30 low, confirming an extension of the reversal that started May 9. Note that the key support and bear trigger lies at 0.8493, and a sustained breach of this point would be required to enhance bearish momentum. Initial resistance moves down to 0.8566, the 20-day EMA.
  • UK and Canada retail sales highlight the data docket on Friday before the revised set of UMich sentiment and inflation expectations data.
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  • After initially fading in early Thursday trade, the USD index received a firm boost following the stronger than expected US PMI data, which indicated its sharpest growth for just over two years, driven by services.
  • This keeps the DXY close to the week’s best levels, just below the 105 mark, as markets once again push back their bets for the first Fed rate cut later this year.
  • Overall, G10 currency adjustments The Japanese Yen underperforms amid the yield move and USDJPY has consolidated back above the 157.00 handle, despite some initial noisy two-way price action after the breach.
  • The stronger greenback also saw the earlier Euro bid, kick started by the stronger German PMIs, dissipate and EURUSD is currently edging back towards the 1.08 handle as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • NZD is moderately outperforming, up 0.15% against the dollar. New Zealand retail sales for Q1 rose +0.5%, against a consensus expectation for a fall and added some bullish sentiment to the hawkish-to-expectations RBNZ meeting earlier in the week.
  • Participants remain aware of the 0.8500 handle in EURGBP marking an important support over the past 18 months. The cross has failed to close below 0.8500 since August 2022, with several tests over the past year being well respected.
  • Technically we noted that Wednesday’s move resulted in a break of short-term support at 0.8531, the Apr 30 low, confirming an extension of the reversal that started May 9. Note that the key support and bear trigger lies at 0.8493, and a sustained breach of this point would be required to enhance bearish momentum. Initial resistance moves down to 0.8566, the 20-day EMA.
  • UK and Canada retail sales highlight the data docket on Friday before the revised set of UMich sentiment and inflation expectations data.