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Strong USD Could Lead to Further Outperformance in US Equities

US
  • In the past 15 years, we have seen that periods of USD strength have been usually associated with an outperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world (RoW) equities.
  • The chart below shows the strong co-movement between the broad USD index (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) and the US/Row equities relative performance, which we define as the difference between the annual change in SPY and VEU indexes.
  • We have seen that the slow vaccination campaign in the EM world combined with the rise in political instability could continue to support the greenback against EM currencies in the coming weeks.
  • Hence, US stocks could continue to outperform the RoW equities in the medium term, especially EM equities.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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