Stronger than exp. trade data & an.....>

AUSSIE BONDS: Stronger than exp. trade data & an approach towards notable

resistance in YM kept a lid on bond futures in the wake of today's softer than

expected retail sales data, which on a trend basis, will continue to generate

worry at the RBA. YM last trades -1.5 ticks, with XM +1.0 tick. YM/XM -2.5 ticks

at 46.5, with the cash equivalent at 46.9bp. The AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread

trades at -60.9bp.

- Bills trade 1-3 ticks lower through the reds after IRH9's final settlement.

3-Month BBSW fixed ~1.7bp lower today, while RBA repo ops saw $750mn worth of

12-Day ops dealt at an average of 1.727%, while A$1.04bn worth of 34-day ops

were dealt at an average of 2.039%.

- BBG's WIRP now prices in a 75% chance of at least one cut by year end, based

on interpolated OIS. UBS have frontloaded their RBA call, and now look for back

to back RBA cuts in July & August of this year, following JPM & Nomura.

- IDB priced a A$100mn tap of its 2024 A$ line at swaps +38bp, while SEK priced

a A$15mn tap of its 2028 A$ bond line. Focus tomorrow turns to the AOFM's weekly

issuance schedule and the issuance of the 2.50% 21 May 2030 ACGB.