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Stronger Than Expected Activity Data, BRL Little Changed At Open

BRAZIL
  • Economic activity rose 0.56% m/m (estimate +0.15%) in April versus revised -0.14% in March, according to the Brazil Central Bank. The stronger than expected readings have prompted little reaction in the currency at the open. Analysts are noting that the steady decline in the currency’s implied volatility may be signalling the growing confidence that BRL may be better positioned to absorb any bouts of significant pressure.
  • Overall, USDBRL maintains a softer tone following the reversal from 5.1277, the May 31 high. The pair has cleared 4.8859, the May 15 low and key support. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The 4.8000 handle has been tested, a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards 4.7490, Jun 6 2022 low and 4.6910, the May 30 2022 low.
  • Next week the focus will be on the June Copom meeting/decision where the statement may be used to signal the path toward monetary easing. Analyst have been bringing forward their forecasts for the first Selic rate cut, with the majority debating a move between August & September.
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