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Stronger US Service PMI Details Help Mitigate Debt Talk Back And Forth

STIR
  • Continued debt limit headlines still muddy the waters (latest McCarthy follows Graves in saying a deal is not close yet), but stronger service PMI details including “resilient strong increases in service sector charges” help support earlier increases in rate expectations.
  • With the Fed so keenly watching non-housing services inflation and companies often stating that “greater wage bill drove inflation, as firms sought to pass-through higher cost burdens to clients”, June FOMC OIS pricing is only slightly off session highs at +8bps (Friday’s pre-debt talk impasse levels of +8-9bps).
  • Subsequent meetings have seen larger moves off earlier highs but still hold decent increases on the day. Cumulative change from 5.08% effective: +8bp Jun (+2.5bp), +12.5bp Jul (+3bp), +3.5bp Sep (+3bp), -14bp Nov (+5bp), -34bp Dec (+4.5bp) and -59bp Jan (+7bp).

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