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Subdued, Awaiting U.S. PCE Deflator

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are at session bests (YM +4.0 & XM +5.5) ahead of the bell as U.S. Tsy tread water in Asia-Pac trade ahead of the release of the U.S. PCE deflator later today. Cash ACGBs are 4-6bp richer with the 3/10 curve 2bp flatter and the AU/US 10-year yield differential -2bp at -25bp.

  • 3s10s swap curve bull flattens with rates 3-5bp lower and 3-year EFP 1bp wider.
  • Bills strip pricing is 1-4bp richer.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bp softer across meetings with an 18% chance of a 25bp hike priced for April. Cumulative tightening over the April and May meetings remains around 10bp, its highest level since March 15th.
  • On the local front, Private Sector Credit printed 0.3% M/M for February, displaying the slowest 3-month growth rate in two years.
  • Before the RBA rates decision on Tuesday, the local calendar is light, with the Judo Bank PMIs and Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge being the highlights. The RBNZ rates decision is on Wednesday.
  • Until then, the market's focus will be on the release of Euro Area CPI for March and the U.S. PCE deflator for February, which are set to be released later today.
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