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Summary – April 05

LATAM
  • Focus turns to the March nonfarm payrolls report, at which markets expect 214k jobs added this month, along with a tick lower in the unemployment rate to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are expected to slow further, with the y/y rate seen at 4.1% vs. 4.3% previously. In LatAm, Brazil February budget balance data will cross, followed by Chile nominal wages for February. Mexico March vehicle production and the latest Banamex economist survey will also be released.
  • US Dollar - the USD Index is more stable after three consecutive sessions of declines, leaving the currency poised for post-jobs report volatility. 103.922 marks the first downside level, the 50-dma, which provided firm support during Thursday trade, so could mark an important level ahead of the weekend.
  • Global News:
    • US / ISRAEL – Israel will allow more aid to enter Gaza and reopen a major border crossing after a warning by President Biden that support for Israel's war effort against Hamas hinges on it doing more to help ease the humanitarian crisis in the strip. The warning, delivered in a Thursday phone call between the two leaders, signalled that Biden is toughening his stance after an Israeli strike that killed seven people delivering food to displaced Palestinians in Gaza.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the board will consider a further increase to its policy interest rate if the probability of achieving the bank’s 2% target increases, the Asahi Shimbun reported on Friday. Ueda in an interview with the newspaper said he expects the probability to increase from summer to autumn when hefty wage hikes in spring wage negotiations reflect prices.
    • US / CHINA – Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen chided China’s government for “unfair” treatment of American and other foreign companies and called on Beijing to return to the pro-market reforms of the past, at the start of her four-day visit to the country.

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